Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,672$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,466.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,466.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(32.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,088$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,817$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,894.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,894.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(658 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,929.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,929.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,349$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,827$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,266.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,266.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,945$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,021.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,021.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,303$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,245,925$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,318,725.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 80.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,318,725.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $134,777$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,159.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,159.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,115,572$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $290,504$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,491.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(280,491.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,883$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,649.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $244,243$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,898$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,043.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,043.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,526$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,333.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,333.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,372$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $199,709$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(6.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,913.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(185,913.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,070$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,773.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,773.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,373$ on 2020-07-11