Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,672$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,466.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,466.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $118$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(32.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,088$ on 2020-07-11

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,817$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,894.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,894.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(658 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,929.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,929.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,349$ on 2020-07-11

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $242,827$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,266.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,266.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,945$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,021.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,021.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,303$ on 2020-07-11

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,245,925$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,318,725.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 80.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,318,725.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $134,777$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,159.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,159.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,115,572$ on 2020-07-11

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $290,504$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,491.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(280,491.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,883$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,649.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $244,243$ on 2020-07-11

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,898$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,043.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,043.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,526$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,333.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,333.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,372$ on 2020-07-11

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,709$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(6.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,913.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(185,913.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,070$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,773.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,773.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,373$ on 2020-07-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Denmark recovered 93%
Qatar recovered 89%
Italy recovered 88%
Turkey recovered 83%
Singapore recovered 82%
Uruguay recovered 81%
Maldives recovered 72%
Jamaica recovered 69%
Hungary recovered 68%
Belarus recovered 63%
Chile recovered 59%
Ghana recovered 50%
Poland recovered 36%
Iran recovered 29%
Morocco recovered 24%
Canada recovered 24%
Haiti recovered 22%
Nepal recovered 20%
Pakistan recovered 20%
Russia recovered 14%
Somalia recovered 13%
Sudan recovered 10%
Armenia recovered 6%

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,147$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,572.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(209 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(592.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-07-11

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,128$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107,562.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $146$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(186.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,048$ on 2020-07-11

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,981$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,837.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(190,837.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,344$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,954.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,954.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,420$ on 2020-07-11

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,783$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,249.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(8.59 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,731$ on 2020-07-11